SUN & MOON · PACK EV CALCULATOR
Guardians Rising
90% of pack cost covered — great value
PACK COST
VERDICT
Good Value
EV PER PACK
$4.51
Expected return
VS PACK COST
$-0.48
Below cost
HIT RATE
11.3%
1 in ~9 packs
PRICE DATA
348/359
97% coverage
VALUE SPLIT
$4.51 total EV
PULL RATE BREAKDOWN
How often each rarity tier appears in a pack
| RARITY TIER | CARDS | PULL CHANCE | AVG PRICE | EV / PACK | BEST PULL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commons & Uncommons | 188 | Filler | $0.47 | $0.10 | Mimikyu$7.58 |
Rare | 51 | 55.0% | $0.51 | $0.36 | Rayquaza$4.99 |
Holo Rare | 15 | 20.0% | $1.19 | $0.30 | Mimikyu$6.63 |
EX / V / GX / ex | 14 | 14.0% | $4.75 | $0.75 | Sylveon-GX$26.48 |
Ultra Rare / Full Art | 43 | 7.0% | $9.91 | $2.02 | Sylveon GX (Full Art)$53.36 |
Secret Rare / Special Art | 48 | 4.0% | $24.81 | $0.99 | Sylveon GX (Secret)$149.98 |
| Total EV / Pack | $4.51 | vs $4.99 pack · $-0.48 |
TOP PULLS
100 cards · ranked by EV contribution
Sylveon-GX
$26.48
$0.35 EV
Sylveon GX (Full Art)
$53.36
$0.26 EV
Sylveon-GX
$48.28
$0.23 EV
Mallow (Full Art)
$32.26
$0.16 EV
Mallow
$29.30
$0.14 EV
Sylveon GX
$27.51
$0.13 EV
Sylveon GX (Secret)
$149.98
$0.12 EV
Mimikyu
$6.63
$0.11 EV
Alolan Ninetales GX (Full Art)
$22.59
$0.11 EV
Sylveon-GX
$128.63
$0.11 EV
Alolan Ninetales-GX
$20.48
$0.10 EV
Hau (Full Art)
$19.37
$0.09 EV
Hau
$17.53
$0.08 EV
Alolan Ninetales-GX
$5.40
$0.07 EV
Rayquaza
$4.99
$0.07 EV
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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Is it worth opening Guardians Rising packs?
Based on current market prices, probably not if you're purely chasing value — the expected value is $4.51 per pack versus a $4.99 pack price, meaning you lose about $0.48 per pack on average. However, if you hit a chase card it can still return many times the pack cost.
What is the hit rate for Guardians Rising packs?
About 11% — roughly 1 in 9 packs. This is the probability that your guaranteed rare slot pull is worth more than the pack cost on its own. The reverse holo slot adds additional value on top of this.
What is the best pull in Guardians Rising?
The highest expected-value card in Guardians Rising is Sylveon-GX, currently priced around $26.48. Chase cards like this drive most of a set's EV — a single pull can easily cover the cost of multiple packs.
How is pack expected value calculated?
Every booster pack contains a rare slot (one guaranteed rare or better) and a reverse holo slot (one random card from the set). We apply estimated pull rates to each rarity tier — Secret Rare ~4%, Ultra Rare ~7%, EX/V/ex ~14%, Holo Rare ~20%, Basic Rare ~55%. Within each tier, probability is split equally across all cards of that rarity. Each card's price is weighted by its pull probability and summed to produce the EV per pack. Pull rates are approximations based on community-verified data; actual rates vary by set print run and product type.
The Guardians Rising set was released on May 5, 2017 as part of the Sun & Moon series, containing 180 cards across multiple rarity tiers. At a pack price of $4.99, the estimated expected value is $4.51 per pack — a negative return of $-0.48 on average.
Use the calculator above to adjust pack cost (sealed product prices vary by retailer) and see an updated EV breakdown instantly. Prices update daily — bookmark this page to track whether Guardians Rising packs become better or worse value over time as the market shifts.
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