SCARLET & VIOLET · PACK EV CALCULATOR
Paldean Fates
PACK COST
VERDICT
Below Cost
EV PER PACK
$1.16
Expected return
VS PACK COST
$-3.83
Below cost
HIT RATE
1.5%
1 in ~68 packs
PRICE DATA
244/245
100% coverage
VALUE SPLIT
$1.16 total EV
PULL RATE BREAKDOWN
How often each rarity tier appears in a pack
| RARITY TIER | CARDS | PULL CHANCE | AVG PRICE | EV / PACK | BEST PULL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commons & Uncommons | 65 | Filler | $0.18 | $0.10 | Iono$0.78 |
Rare | 16 | 55.0% | $0.12 | $0.09 | Mimikyu$0.21 |
EX / V / GX / ex | 10 | 14.0% | $0.98 | $0.24 | Charizard ex$4.57 |
Ultra Rare / Full Art | 8 | 7.0% | $1.31 | $0.20 | Pawmi$2.21 |
Secret Rare / Special Art | 146 | 4.0% | $13.41 | $0.53 | Mew ex$692.50 |
| Total EV / Pack | $1.16 | vs $4.99 pack · $-3.83 |
TOP PULLS
100 cards · ranked by EV contribution
Mew ex
$692.50
$0.19 EV
Charizard ex
$4.57
$0.11 EV
Charizard ex
$280.35
$0.08 EV
Pawmi
$2.21
$0.04 EV
Gardevoir ex
$126.74
$0.03 EV
Wugtrio
$1.78
$0.03 EV
Palafin
$1.78
$0.03 EV
Judge
$1.55
$0.03 EV
Nemona
$1.00
$0.02 EV
Gardevoir ex
$0.75
$0.02 EV
Paldean Student
$0.80
$0.02 EV
Paldean Student
$0.80
$0.02 EV
Squawkabilly ex
$0.61
$0.01 EV
Pikachu
$52.46
$0.01 EV
Great Tusk ex
$0.59
$0.01 EV
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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Is it worth opening Paldean Fates packs?
Based on current market prices, probably not if you're purely chasing value — the expected value is $1.16 per pack versus a $4.99 pack price, meaning you lose about $3.83 per pack on average. However, if you hit a chase card it can still return many times the pack cost.
What is the hit rate for Paldean Fates packs?
About 1% — roughly 1 in 68 packs. This is the probability that your guaranteed rare slot pull is worth more than the pack cost on its own. The reverse holo slot adds additional value on top of this.
What is the best pull in Paldean Fates?
The highest expected-value card in Paldean Fates is Mew ex, currently priced around $692.50. Chase cards like this drive most of a set's EV — a single pull can easily cover the cost of multiple packs.
How is pack expected value calculated?
Every booster pack contains a rare slot (one guaranteed rare or better) and a reverse holo slot (one random card from the set). We apply estimated pull rates to each rarity tier — Secret Rare ~4%, Ultra Rare ~7%, EX/V/ex ~14%, Holo Rare ~20%, Basic Rare ~55%. Within each tier, probability is split equally across all cards of that rarity. Each card's price is weighted by its pull probability and summed to produce the EV per pack. Pull rates are approximations based on community-verified data; actual rates vary by set print run and product type.
The Paldean Fates set was released on January 26, 2024 as part of the Scarlet & Violet series, containing 245 cards across multiple rarity tiers. At a pack price of $4.99, the estimated expected value is $1.16 per pack — a negative return of $-3.83 on average.
Use the calculator above to adjust pack cost (sealed product prices vary by retailer) and see an updated EV breakdown instantly. Prices update daily — bookmark this page to track whether Paldean Fates packs become better or worse value over time as the market shifts.
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