SWORD & SHIELD · PACK EV CALCULATOR
Lost Origin
PACK COST
VERDICT
Good Value
EV PER PACK
$8.43
Expected return
VS PACK COST
+$3.44
Above cost
HIT RATE
3.1%
1 in ~32 packs
PRICE DATA
217/217
100% coverage
VALUE SPLIT
$8.43 total EV
PULL RATE BREAKDOWN
How often each rarity tier appears in a pack
| RARITY TIER | CARDS | PULL CHANCE | AVG PRICE | EV / PACK | BEST PULL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commons & Uncommons | 99 | Filler | $0.25 | $0.10 | Pikachu$3.06 |
Rare | 28 | 55.0% | $0.24 | $0.17 | Mimikyu$0.59 |
Holo Rare | 22 | 20.0% | $0.46 | $0.14 | Gengar$3.02 |
EX / V / GX / ex | 22 | 14.0% | $1.03 | $0.26 | Giratina VSTAR$2.19 |
Ultra Rare / Full Art | 25 | 7.0% | $38.00 | $7.51 | Giratina V$682.66 |
Secret Rare / Special Art | 21 | 4.0% | $6.21 | $0.25 | Giratina VSTAR$24.12 |
| Total EV / Pack | $8.43 | vs $4.99 pack · +$3.44 |
TOP PULLS
100 cards · ranked by EV contribution
Giratina V
$682.66
$5.39 EV
Aerodactyl V
$164.10
$1.30 EV
Rotom V
$27.09
$0.21 EV
Galarian Perrserker V
$16.48
$0.13 EV
Giratina V
$13.29
$0.11 EV
Giratina VSTAR
$24.12
$0.05 EV
Gengar
$3.02
$0.04 EV
Arezu
$4.11
$0.03 EV
Lady
$4.04
$0.03 EV
Giratina VSTAR
$14.91
$0.03 EV
Giratina VSTAR
$2.19
$0.03 EV
Aerodactyl VSTAR
$12.93
$0.02 EV
Miss Fortune Sisters
$2.95
$0.02 EV
Volo
$2.93
$0.02 EV
Fantina
$2.85
$0.02 EV
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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Is it worth opening Lost Origin packs?
Based on current market prices, yes — the expected value is $8.43 per pack against a $4.99 pack cost, a positive return of +$3.44 on average. Keep in mind EV is a statistical average across many packs; individual packs vary significantly.
What is the hit rate for Lost Origin packs?
About 3% — roughly 1 in 32 packs. This is the probability that your guaranteed rare slot pull is worth more than the pack cost on its own. The reverse holo slot adds additional value on top of this.
What is the best pull in Lost Origin?
The highest expected-value card in Lost Origin is Giratina V, currently priced around $682.66. Chase cards like this drive most of a set's EV — a single pull can easily cover the cost of multiple packs.
How is pack expected value calculated?
Every booster pack contains a rare slot (one guaranteed rare or better) and a reverse holo slot (one random card from the set). We apply estimated pull rates to each rarity tier — Secret Rare ~4%, Ultra Rare ~7%, EX/V/ex ~14%, Holo Rare ~20%, Basic Rare ~55%. Within each tier, probability is split equally across all cards of that rarity. Each card's price is weighted by its pull probability and summed to produce the EV per pack. Pull rates are approximations based on community-verified data; actual rates vary by set print run and product type.
The Lost Origin set was released on September 9, 2022 as part of the Sword & Shield series, containing 217 cards across multiple rarity tiers. At a pack price of $4.99, the estimated expected value is $8.43 per pack — a positive return of +$3.44 on average.
Use the calculator above to adjust pack cost (sealed product prices vary by retailer) and see an updated EV breakdown instantly. Prices update daily — bookmark this page to track whether Lost Origin packs become better or worse value over time as the market shifts.
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