SWORD & SHIELD · PACK EV CALCULATOR
Sword & Shield
150% of pack cost covered — great value
PACK COST
VERDICT
Good Value
EV PER PACK
$18.05
Expected return
VS PACK COST
+$13.06
Above cost
HIT RATE
28.3%
1 in ~4 packs
PRICE DATA
413/416
99% coverage
VALUE SPLIT
$18.05 total EV
PULL RATE BREAKDOWN
How often each rarity tier appears in a pack
| RARITY TIER | CARDS | PULL CHANCE | AVG PRICE | EV / PACK | BEST PULL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commons & Uncommons | 116 | Filler | $0.42 | $0.10 | Evolution Incense$3.19 |
Rare | 231 | 55.0% | $13.69 | $15.19 | Champions Festival - SWSH296 (World Championships 2022)$650.00 |
Holo Rare | 17 | 20.0% | $0.85 | $0.21 | Gengar$8.49 |
EX / V / GX / ex | 21 | 14.0% | $4.96 | $0.95 | Snorlax VMAX$62.50 |
Ultra Rare / Full Art | 17 | 7.0% | $8.29 | $0.93 | Marnie$37.37 |
Secret Rare / Special Art | 14 | 4.0% | $16.66 | $0.67 | Snorlax VMAX$90.88 |
| Total EV / Pack | $18.05 | vs $4.99 pack · +$13.06 |
TOP PULLS
100 cards · ranked by EV contribution
Champions Festival - SWSH296 (World Championships 2022)
$650.00
$3.16 EV
Special Delivery Bidoof
$434.91
$2.12 EV
Snorlax VMAX
$62.50
$0.57 EV
Pikachu V - SWSH145
$111.91
$0.54 EV
Vaporeon VMAX - SWSH182
$88.30
$0.43 EV
Flareon V - SWSH179
$87.31
$0.43 EV
Charizard VSTAR - SWSH262
$86.63
$0.42 EV
Jolteon V - SWSH183
$81.56
$0.40 EV
Jolteon VMAX - SWSH184
$80.59
$0.39 EV
Vaporeon V - SWSH181
$75.51
$0.37 EV
Flareon VMAX - SWSH180
$65.71
$0.32 EV
Charizard V - SWSH260
$58.13
$0.28 EV
Snorlax VMAX
$90.88
$0.26 EV
![Rapidash - SWSH270 (Prerelease) [STAFF]](https://tcgplayer-cdn.tcgplayer.com/product/451885_in_400x400.jpg)
Rapidash - SWSH270 (Prerelease) [STAFF]
$51.03
$0.25 EV
Marnie
$37.37
$0.25 EV
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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Is it worth opening Sword & Shield packs?
Based on current market prices, yes — the expected value is $18.05 per pack against a $4.99 pack cost, a positive return of +$13.06 on average. Keep in mind EV is a statistical average across many packs; individual packs vary significantly.
What is the hit rate for Sword & Shield packs?
About 28% — roughly 1 in 4 packs. This is the probability that your guaranteed rare slot pull is worth more than the pack cost on its own. The reverse holo slot adds additional value on top of this.
What is the best pull in Sword & Shield?
The highest expected-value card in Sword & Shield is Champions Festival - SWSH296 (World Championships 2022), currently priced around $650.00. Chase cards like this drive most of a set's EV — a single pull can easily cover the cost of multiple packs.
How is pack expected value calculated?
Every booster pack contains a rare slot (one guaranteed rare or better) and a reverse holo slot (one random card from the set). We apply estimated pull rates to each rarity tier — Secret Rare ~4%, Ultra Rare ~7%, EX/V/ex ~14%, Holo Rare ~20%, Basic Rare ~55%. Within each tier, probability is split equally across all cards of that rarity. Each card's price is weighted by its pull probability and summed to produce the EV per pack. Pull rates are approximations based on community-verified data; actual rates vary by set print run and product type.
The Sword & Shield set was released on February 7, 2020 as part of the Sword & Shield series, containing 216 cards across multiple rarity tiers. At a pack price of $4.99, the estimated expected value is $18.05 per pack — a positive return of +$13.06 on average.
Use the calculator above to adjust pack cost (sealed product prices vary by retailer) and see an updated EV breakdown instantly. Prices update daily — bookmark this page to track whether Sword & Shield packs become better or worse value over time as the market shifts.
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