SWORD & SHIELD · PACK EV CALCULATOR
Shining Fates
Only 39% of pack cost covered — buy singles instead
PACK COST
VERDICT
Below Cost
EV PER PACK
$1.96
Expected return
VS PACK COST
$-3.03
Below cost
HIT RATE
4.2%
1 in ~24 packs
PRICE DATA
160/160
100% coverage
VALUE SPLIT
$1.96 total EV
PULL RATE BREAKDOWN
How often each rarity tier appears in a pack
| RARITY TIER | CARDS | PULL CHANCE | AVG PRICE | EV / PACK | BEST PULL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Commons & Uncommons | 83 | Filler | $0.17 | $0.10 | Eevee$0.57 |
Rare | 16 | 55.0% | $0.24 | $0.16 | Celebi$0.65 |
Holo Rare | 7 | 20.0% | $0.25 | $0.06 | Decidueye$0.31 |
EX / V / GX / ex | 20 | 14.0% | $2.03 | $0.54 | Ditto VMAX$5.06 |
Ultra Rare / Full Art | 32 | 7.0% | $3.33 | $0.91 | Skyla (Full Art)$11.97 |
Secret Rare / Special Art | 2 | 4.0% | $4.80 | $0.19 | Alcremie VMAX$5.27 |
| Total EV / Pack | $1.96 | vs $4.99 pack · $-3.03 |
TOP PULLS
77 cards · ranked by EV contribution
Alcremie VMAX
$5.27
$0.11 EV
Skyla (Full Art)
$11.97
$0.10 EV
Skyla
$11.97
$0.10 EV
Poke Kid (Full Art)
$11.17
$0.10 EV
Poké Kid
$10.59
$0.09 EV
Alcremie VMAX (Secret)
$4.34
$0.09 EV
Ditto VMAX
$5.06
$0.07 EV
Kyogre
$4.95
$0.07 EV
Kyogre
$4.44
$0.06 EV
Alcremie V
$6.46
$0.06 EV
Alcremie V (Full Art)
$6.23
$0.05 EV
Ditto VMAX
$5.20
$0.04 EV
Ball Guy
$4.81
$0.04 EV
Ball Guy (Full Art)
$4.61
$0.04 EV
Morpeko VMAX
$2.85
$0.04 EV
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FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
Is it worth opening Shining Fates packs?
Based on current market prices, probably not if you're purely chasing value — the expected value is $1.96 per pack versus a $4.99 pack price, meaning you lose about $3.03 per pack on average. However, if you hit a chase card it can still return many times the pack cost.
What is the hit rate for Shining Fates packs?
About 4% — roughly 1 in 24 packs. This is the probability that your guaranteed rare slot pull is worth more than the pack cost on its own. The reverse holo slot adds additional value on top of this.
What is the best pull in Shining Fates?
The highest expected-value card in Shining Fates is Alcremie VMAX, currently priced around $5.27. Chase cards like this drive most of a set's EV — a single pull can easily cover the cost of multiple packs.
How is pack expected value calculated?
Every booster pack contains a rare slot (one guaranteed rare or better) and a reverse holo slot (one random card from the set). We apply estimated pull rates to each rarity tier — Secret Rare ~4%, Ultra Rare ~7%, EX/V/ex ~14%, Holo Rare ~20%, Basic Rare ~55%. Within each tier, probability is split equally across all cards of that rarity. Each card's price is weighted by its pull probability and summed to produce the EV per pack. Pull rates are approximations based on community-verified data; actual rates vary by set print run and product type.
The Shining Fates set was released on February 19, 2021 as part of the Sword & Shield series, containing 73 cards across multiple rarity tiers. At a pack price of $4.99, the estimated expected value is $1.96 per pack — a negative return of $-3.03 on average.
Use the calculator above to adjust pack cost (sealed product prices vary by retailer) and see an updated EV breakdown instantly. Prices update daily — bookmark this page to track whether Shining Fates packs become better or worse value over time as the market shifts.
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